关键词: 伊犁河流域, 山区径流, 气候变化, 影响

Abstract: The Ili River basin is a relatively abundant inland river basin in terms of runoff. Runoff in the mountainous areas of the Ili River basin is mainly influenced by factors such as climate, snow cover, glaciers, permafrost, and vegetation. In recent years, with the warming of the global climate, the region has seen an increase in winter temperatures, which may change the patterns of precipitation, leading to increased winter runoff while reducing summer runoff. The glaciers in the Ili River basin are diminishing, which could possibly increase the volume of runoff in the short term, but is expected to lead to a decrease in runoff over the long term. In recent years, there has been a reduction in the snow water equivalent from January to March in the region, which affects the summer base flow and the distribution of runoff. Moreover, the rise in temperature has led to changes in the meltwater from snow cover, increasing the uncertainty of runoff. The degradation of permafrost affects the replenishment of groundwater and the pathways of runoff, while the degradation of vegetation increases surface runoff and decreases subsurface runoff, causing greater seasonal fluctuations in river flow. Therefore, the impact of climate change on the runoff of the Ili River basin is multifaceted, and the future changes in runoff will be more complex.