自然杂志 ›› 2010, Vol. 32 ›› Issue (1): 4-8.

• 特约专稿 • 上一篇    下一篇

青藏高原冰川退缩对河水径流的影响

姚檀栋①姚治君②   

  1. ①中国科学院院士,中国科学院青藏高原研究所,北京 100085 ②研究员,中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,北京 100101
  • 收稿日期:2010-01-07 修回日期:2010-01-27 出版日期:2010-02-25 发布日期:2010-02-25
  • 基金资助:

    中国科学院院士咨询项目“青藏高原冰川冻土变化对区域生态环境影响评估与对策”和国家重点基础研究发展计划(973)项目2005CB422000资助

Impacts of Glacial Reretreat on Runoff on Tibetan Plateau

YAO Tandong①, YAO Zhijun②   

  1. ①member of CAS, Institute of Tibetan Pleteau Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences(CAS), Beijing 100085, China; ②Professor, Insititute of Geographic Sciences and Resources Research, Beijing 100101, China
  • Received:2010-01-07 Revised:2010-01-27 Online:2010-02-25 Published:2010-02-25

摘要: 青藏高原发育着36 793条现代冰川,冰川面积49 873.44 km2,冰储量4 561 km3,分别占中国冰川总条数的79.5%,冰川总面积的84%和冰储量的81.6%。进入20世纪以来,随着全球气候的波动变暖,特别是进入20世纪80年代以来的快速增温,使得大多数冰川处于退缩趋势。20世纪上半叶是冰川前进期或由前进期转为后退的时期;50年代至60年代冰川出现大规模退缩,但并未形成冰川全面退缩;60年代末至70年代,许多冰川曾出现前进或前进迹象,前进冰川的比例增大,退缩冰川的退缩幅度减小; 80年代以来,冰川后退重新加剧;90年代以来冰川退缩强烈。现在虽仍有个别冰川在前进,但高原冰川基本上转入全面退缩状态,这是20世纪90年代以来冰川变化的一个重要特征。
青藏高原哺育了亚洲的十多条河流,包括长江、黄河、恒河、印度河、雅鲁藏布江、怒江和澜沧江等七条最重要的河流。近数十年来,在全球变暖和冰川退缩加快的大背景下,青藏高原七大江河径流量亦呈现出不稳定的变化。从趋势上看,短期内冰川退缩将使河流水量呈增加态势,但亦会加大以冰川融水补给为主的河流或河段的不稳定性;而随着冰川的持续退缩,冰川融水将锐减,以冰川融水补给为主的河流,特别中小支流将面临逐渐干涸的威胁。

关键词: 关键词冰川退缩水资源径流气候变化

Abstract: On the Tibetan Plateau, there are more than 36 793 glaciers with an area of 49 873.44 km2 and volume of 4 561 km3. They account for 79.5% of the total glacial number, 84% of the total glacial area and 81.6% of the total glacial volume in China. With the climate warming since the 20th century, particularly the rapid warming since the 1980 s, most glaciers are retreating. The first half of the century was characterized with a transition period from glacial advance to glacial retreat. The intensive retreat started from the 1950s to the 1960 s.There was stable or even advancing phenomena between the 1960s and the 1970 s. After the 1980 s, glacial retreat started again and became more intensive in the 1990s.There are more than 10 rivers originate from the Tibetan Plateau with the Asia’s seven most important rivers including the Yongtze River, Yellow River, Ganges River, Indus River, Yarlung Zangbo River, Nujiang River. The runoffs of the seven rivers have shown an unstable changing with the retreat of the glaciers. They tend to increase, particularly in the winter half year because of more glacial meltwater supply. As glaciers continuously retreat, the amount of glacial meltwater would decrease at some stage; this would be especially true in the middle and small reaches.

Key words: glacial retreat,, water resource, runoff,, climate change