自然杂志 ›› 2010, Vol. 32 ›› Issue (6): 311-313.

• 特约专稿 •    下一篇

地震机理与瞬间因素对地震的触发作用——兼论地震发生的不确定性

马瑾   

  1. 中国科学院院士,中国地震局地质研究所,地震动力学国家重点实验室,北京 100029
  • 收稿日期:2010-08-16 修回日期:2010-09-16 出版日期:2010-12-25 发布日期:2010-12-25

Uncertainty of the Earthquakes and Earthquake Mechanism and Seismic Triggering Effect of Instantaneous Factors

MA Jin   

  1. CAS Member, State Key Laboratory of Earthquake Dynamics, Institute of Geology, China Earthquake Administration, Beijing 100029, China
  • Received:2010-08-16 Revised:2010-09-16 Online:2010-12-25 Published:2010-12-25

摘要:   近年来中国连续发生几次7级以上的强烈地震,给人民的生命财产造成重大损失。地震机理和活动规律的研究受到了高度重视。以往认为:一个地震的发生是由于某地点早就开始孕育,待应力达到临界状态时发生。因此,只要对该地区进行充分的观测与研究,就可以确定某地点在什么时间会发生多大的事件,但是实际情况往往并非如此。近年来的一些观测事实表明一些地区的小地震可以由远处大震面波的通过而触发。实验室的研究表明很小的法向扰动可以改变断层原有失稳错动的规律。这些事实表明地震的发生存在一定程度的不确定性。

Abstract: Several strong earthquakes with magnitude 7 up struck China in recent years, causing tremendous losses of life and property. The research of earthquake mechanism and seismic activity has been paid much attention now. Traditional ideas are that an earthquake occurs when it reaches the critical state of stress, after a long period of preparation. Therefore, it seems that as long as there are fully observation and research, we can determine the location, time and magnitude of an earthquake. But it is often not so optimistic under the real condition of an earthquake. In recent years, some of the observed facts show that small earthquakes in some areas can be triggered by surface waves of strong earthquakes in the distance. Laboratory studies show that small normal perturbation could change the original law of fault unstable sliding. These facts indicate that there is a certain degree of uncertainty in the occurrence of earthquakes.