关键词: 气候变化, 水循环, 水资源, 脆弱性, 适应性, 对策

Abstract:

The change of water cycling and water resources in China Eastern monsoon area is rather complicated, which has both strong monsoon influences of natural changes and climate change impact caused by carbon dioxide emissions due to anthropogenic forcing. The major change of land water cycle is the co-action of greenhouse gas emissions impact superposition in the eastern monsoon region and the natural variability of interaction, which the natural variability contribution to the influence of precipitation accounted for about 70% and anthropogenic forcing about 30%. With future increasing CO2 emissions contribution rate, the extreme floods will have further increasing. Also, along with rising temperature of 1 °C in North China, the agricultural water consumption will increase about 4% of the total water consumption. Thus, there are significant impacts of climate change and its risk on China’s eastern monsoon region, which covered almost of eight major river basins, such as Yangtze river, Yellow River, Huai River, Hai River and Pearl River, as well as the major water transfer (middle line). For the water security issue, it is necessary to take adaptive countermeasures and measures to reduce the vulnerability of water resources and their risks.